Omnicor’s assessments differentiate between specialist success and leadership potential, helping organisations avoid misguided promotion decisions.
You have a top performer. They are one of the strongest specialists in their department and an expert in their field. They consistently deliver high-quality work and can always be relied upon. When a managerial position opens, their name is naturally considered. At first glance, promoting them seems like an obvious choice. They’re dependable, efficient, and thoroughly familiar with the business.
However, a few months into the new role, things start to shift. The team seems disengaged, projects slip, and the once high-performing specialist is now struggling to find their footing.
What Happened?
Many organisations fall into the trap of assuming that technical mastery equates to leadership readiness. This reflects what management researchers have long referred to as the Peter Principle.
The Problem: The Performance-Promotion Fallacy
This concept suggests that people are often promoted based on their success in a previous role, until they reach a level where the skills that once made them effective are no longer sufficient.
Without assessing true leadership potential, organisations risk placing capable specialists into roles where they struggle to meet new demands. For the individual, what initially feels like a reward can quickly become overwhelming. Unclear expectations, reduced confidence, and a sense of being unprepared often lead to frustration, disengagement, and a decline in performance.
Specialists thrive through expertise and individual contribution, but when promoted into roles that require managing others, they often find themselves unprepared for challenges such as conflict resolution, delegation, and team motivation. As a result, communication suffers, direction becomes unclear, and team morale declines. Furthermore, they can unintentionally “shrink the role” to fit their comfort zone, producing solutions that are technically sound but misaligned with the organisation’s strategic needs.
When managers lack these essential leadership skills, the impact can ripple through an organisation. A survey by GoodHire found that 82% of employees would consider quitting their jobs due to a bad manager.
Strong leaders, on the other hand, do the following:
- They think broadly, strategically, and with a long-term perspective. They understand how different parts of the organisation are connected. There is a shift from “How to fix the problem?” to “How does this decision shape the whole system?”
- They achieve results through others. They delegate and set clear expectations to create an environment where people take ownership of their tasks, making them feel empowered.
- They develop others. Leadership is not about being the expert in the room; it is more about helping others become their own experts.
- They demonstrate emotional intelligence and resilience. Good leaders manage themselves first. They stay composed under pressure, handle conflict constructively, and show empathy even when challenges arise. This builds trust and strengthens team cohesion.
- They are self-aware and are motivated to learn. Rather than seeing leadership as a destination or a means to increase salary, they view it as an ongoing process of growth. They seek feedback, reflect on their impact, and are willing to adapt.
What the Research Says?
Decades of research show that strong individual performance does not automatically translate into leadership success.
Evidence from Dries and Pepermans (2012), who developed and tested a model for identifying leadership potential, suggests that potential is based on qualities such as learning agility, motivation to lead, and adaptability. These are traits that extend far beyond technical expertise or current performance.
Likewise, a meta-analysis by Hueffmeier and colleagues (2020) confirmed that employee performance and leader performance are only weakly related. Their work highlights that promotion decisions based solely on performance are not a strong indicator in predicting leadership effectiveness.
Research published in Frontiers in Psychology (2020) demonstrated that leadership qualities, including emotional intelligence, learning agility, and strategic thinking, are significantly stronger predictors of success than technical expertise alone.
At the same time, Development Dimensions International’s (DDI’s) Global Leadership Forecast 2023 found that organisations using assessment-driven promotion and development processes have stronger leadership pipelines and higher engagement levels.
Omnicor’s Research
Assessments make leadership potential visible, helping organisations promote wisely and build leaders who truly inspire results. Omnicor’s assessment data reveals clear trends in leadership readiness across thousands of candidates. In evaluating the competency “Decision to Lead” on one of our leadership tools, results from over 5,000 candidates showed that nearly half displayed some level of hesitation or aversion to leading others.
Examining strategic capacity, data from over 11,000 candidates suggests that:
- Approximately 48% possess the capability to manage the complexity typically required at a middle-management level.
- The remaining 52% appear to perform most effectively in technical or operational roles.
- At the senior management level, this figure drops even further, with only around 21% of people generally being ready to handle the strategic demands associated with such positions.
These findings reinforce what global research has consistently shown: leadership readiness cannot be assumed based solely on technical excellence.
The Solution: Assessing for Leadership Potential
The above information suggests that approximately one in every two candidates will likely struggle in a leadership role due to a lack of interest in leading others and the limitations they may face in handling the strategic dynamics of the job.
With that said, assessments offer more than just evaluation. They provide a roadmap for growth. By identifying an individual’s strengths and areas for development, organisations can create targeted interventions such as coaching, mentoring, or structured leadership development programmes. These initiatives help individuals build the skills, confidence, and mindset needed to lead effectively.
When organisations understand a person’s leadership potential before promotion, they can support that transition more intentionally, transforming potential risk into an opportunity for growth. For example, someone who shows strong technical expertise but moderate interpersonal capability might thrive through coaching focused on communication, delegation, and team engagement.
Similarly, leadership courses can strengthen strategic thinking, emotional intelligence, and resilience qualities essential for success at higher levels of complexity. However, not every organisation has the time or resources to develop someone fully before they step into a new role. Having this insight enables leaders to make informed, evidence-based decisions about who is ready now and who may require additional time to develop.
Whether you’re promoting for immediate readiness or long-term potential, assessments give you the clarity and confidence to make those choices wisely.
Want to learn more?
Contact Candice Masterson, Senior Psychometrist at Omnicor (candice@omnicor.co.za), with over 12 years’ experience helping leaders and teams unlock their potential.
References
- Dries, N., & Pepermans, R. (2012). How to identify leadership potential: Development and testing of a consensus model. Human Resource Management, 51(3), 361–385. https://doi.org/10.1002/hrm.21473
- Hueffmeier, J., Hertel, G., & Wegge, J. (2020). Simply the best? A systematic literature review on the predictive validity of employee performance for leader performance. Journal of Business and Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10869-020-09684-4
- Spreitzer, G. M., & Quinn, R. E. (2020). Predicting leadership competency development and promotion among high potentials. Frontiers in Psychology. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.01816/full
- Development Dimensions International (DDI). (2023). Global Leadership Forecast 2023: Ready-Now Leaders, Ready for What’s Next. Development Dimensions International. https://www.ddiworld.com/global-leadership-forecast-2023
- Harvard Business Publishing. (2023). Leadership Reframed for the Workplace of the Future: Foundational Research. Harvard Business Publishing Corporate Learning. https://www.harvardbusiness.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Report_LeadershipCapabilities_Mar2023.pdf
- Korolevich, S. (2022, January 11). Bad managers: Why 82 % of American workers would quit their jobs. GoodHire. https://www.goodhire.com/resources/articles/horrible-bosses-survey/
- Levy, A. (2018, November 19). Why top performers don’t always make great leaders. Forbes Coaches Council. https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbescoachescouncil/2018/11/19/why-top-performers-dont-make-great-leaders/
- Peter, L. J., & Hull, R. (1969). The Peter Principle: Why things always go wrong. William Morrow and Company. https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-peter-principle-laurence-j-peterraymond-hull
Author: Candice Masterson
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